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ResiLogic Monthly Edition — October → November 2025

ResiLogic Monthly Edition — October → November 2025

November 01, 2025

Rates steadied, new stock hit the Cape Town skyline, rental growth stayed strong, and the market is quietly positioning for another rate cut before year-end. Here’s the crisp, data-first read on where SA residential — and Cape Town in particular — is heading next.

📉 Interest Rates & Credit Pulse

What changed in October

Repo: 7.00 % (hold)
Prime: 10.50 % (hold)
CPI (latest published): 3.3 % – September 2025

Why it matters

Inflation remains comfortably in the SARB’s 3 – 6 % target band → room for policy easing.
Bond applications held steady through October, helped by improving consumer credit quality and bank concessions.
Developers are reporting quicker off-plan take-up in projects under R2 million — a clear response to easier lending conditions.

What to watch in November

Expect a 25 bps repo cut if October’s CPI print stays near 3 %.
Track bond approval ratios on < R1.8 million loans — a strong leading indicator for mid-market sectional-title demand.
Monitor lender concessions: spreads below prime are widening slightly as competition intensifies.

🧭 Regional Pulse (Who’s Moving and Where)

Cape Town / Luxury & Investment:

High-end demand held firm through October. Property24 data again highlighted five suburbs with average prices above R20 million, including Bantry Bay, Clifton and Camps Bay.
Agents noted a flood of enquiries from Johannesburg and Durban buyers, with luxury apartment sales topping R200 million collectively for the month.
New launches added fresh supply to prime precincts:
- Dear Jean (Atlantic Seaboard) – 82 units, R2.75 m + , launch 8 Oct.
- Vanderbilt Foreshore – 77 apartments from R1.395 m, sales open 16 Oct.
- ELEVEN on B (West City CBD) – 150+ contemporary apartments targeting young professionals and investors.

Rental markets:

PayProp’s latest Q3 update showed national rental growth still above inflation at 5.1 % y/y, with Western Cape (+7.5 %) leading.
Gauteng and KZN trailed at +2.5 % and +3.7 %, respectively, while arrears fell to their lowest level in five years — signalling resilient tenant quality.

For November:
Expect Western Cape to extend its outperformance in both capital and rental growth. Inland metros (Pretoria and Johannesburg East) may see renewed buyer interest if the expected rate cut lands mid-month.

🌆 Cape Town Market Notes (October Snapshot)

Prime growth leader:
Cape Town’s cumulative price growth since 2010 remains unmatched (~160 %), supported by steady semigration, constrained supply, and consistent investor appetite.

Activity mix:

The Atlantic Seaboard remains the city’s most liquid luxury corridor; apartments in the R3 m – R8 m range are moving quickly.
CBD and Foreshore nodes are seeing strong investor traction due to improved short-term rental yields and new mixed-use amenities.
Southern Suburbs (Claremont, Kenilworth, Observatory) attracting buyers priced out of premium zones — sectional-title volumes are rising.

Sentiment:
Developers report renewed investor confidence: marketing campaigns for new schemes are drawing 20 – 25 % more leads compared with Q2 2025.

💵 House & Apartment Prices (Direction of Travel)

Nationally:
Price growth stayed moderate (+3 – 4 % YoY), but the Western Cape continues to outperform.

By segment:

Sectional Title: +6.1 % YoY (steady demand, low supply)
Freehold: +3.2 % YoY (inland markets catching up)
Western Cape vs Gauteng price growth gap: ~3 percentage points (WC ~6.2 %, GT ~3.1 %)
Average national transaction: ~R 1.62 million
First-time buyer average: ~R 1.32 million

🟣 ResiLogic Closing Thoughts

October was about momentum without mania — a market holding steady while waiting for the next signal from the SARB. Credit conditions are improving, Cape Town continues to anchor premium values, and the pipeline of new apartments is refreshingly active.

If the expected 0.25 % cut arrives in November, expect a gentle demand lift into year-end — particularly in the mid-range sectional-title segment where finance access matters most. Our bias: buy early in quality nodes, price to move, and keep stock turning — the next wave of activity is coming.

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