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Spring Pulse: SA Residential Market in 5 Minutes

Spring Pulse: SA Residential Market in 5 Minutes

What changed, what’s moving, what to build next.

October 01, 2025

Rates steadied, bond appetite held up, Cape Town kept running hot, and sectional-title demand broadened. Here’s the crisp, data-first read on where SA residential is heading next.

📉 Interest Rates & Credit Pulse

What changed in September

Repo: 7.00% (hold)
Prime: 10.50% (hold)
CPI (latest published): 3.3% - September 2025

Why it matters

Lower debt service vs. early-2024 gives first-time buyers room to re-enter.
Banks’ risk appetite improving = higher approval rates and sharper concessions.
A soft CPI print in October would keep one more cut on the table into year-end.

What to watch in October

CPI print mid-month; petrol and food are swing factors.
Approval ratios on <R1.5m bonds; concession depth vs. prime.

Regional pulse (who’s moving and where)

Cape Town/Luxury: High-end demand stayed hot. Property24 highlighted five Cape Town suburbs with average prices above R20 million, reflecting scarce stock and wealthy buyer activity. Separate reporting noted a jump in R20 million-plus apartment sales this year as semigration and lifestyle demand persist.
Rental markets diverge: PayProp’s latest data (reported by REI) shows Q2 2025 rental growth at 5.0% y/y nationally, with Western Cape leading (+7.3%) versus Gauteng (+2.4%) and KZN (+3.6%); arrears hit a record low share of tenants, signalling resilient tenant quality.

For October: Expect Western Cape to continue outperforming on both prices and rents; inland metros should benefit gradually from improved affordability as lending conditions filter through.

Cape Town market notes (September snapshot)

Prime growth leader: Multiple pieces this month reiterated Cape Town’s long-run outperformance (prime values up ~160% since 2010), underpinned by global and local high-net-worth demand and limited inner-city supply.
Activity mix: Reports point to continued depth at the top end (Atlantic Seaboard apartments; R20 m+ deals) with spill-over into well-located sectional-title stock as rate cuts nibble at affordability gaps.

House & apartment prices (direction of travel)

Nationally: Newsroom coverage through September emphasised real activity recovery more than headline price spikes—credit appetite is improving off a lower base following earlier rate cuts; clear luxury-segment strength is visible in Cape Town.
By segment: High-end freehold and premium apartments showed the firmest pricing; mid-market sectional title is where improved finance availability should start unlocking volumes into October/November. (Inference based on the rate-hold backdrop and observed luxury strength.)

Closing Thoughts

September told a simple story: resilience with direction. Credit is loosening at the edges, demand is broadening beyond pure trophy stock, and well-located sectional title is set to carry volume into October. If CPI stays kind, year-end momentum can surprise to the upside. Our bias: own quality, price with discipline, build with speed.

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